Disturbing

[gillsfan1066]

Spent a little while going through my picks this afternoon and found it a bit disturbing we are one of the favorites for relegation in the eyes of the bookies for this up coming season ,and this after we have bought in 4 or 5 new players.
Only 4 other teams were favored for the drop more than us, that does not seem to be a good sign with the season just a few weeks away.

[Robpthegills]

I guess if you look at our performances in the 2nd half of the season then this is reflected in the bookies decision.

The players we have brought, I think are young and exciting and full of promise, but that is all they are just full of promise. Other than Loft the rest are just potential.

To be fair Gillsfan I think the bookies are a little bit like the newspapers when it comes to lower division football. They kiinda know the obvious favourites and thats about it.

[sotongill]

You need to bear in mind that the Bookies will have set the odds to ensure that they make a profit .

Outside of the Medway Towns , they are unlikely to attract the sort of financial exposure that they will from teams such as Sheffield United for example , and this ultimately drives the starting prices being currently offered .

[Garawa]

I agree. I said elsewhere that bookies will lose out if people win on teams not fancied. In truth, if you went down the list (as a neutral) of who the biggest sides were we would be below 18. Maybe we might be above the sides that came up from League 2 but they come into with form so may be fancied more and sides like Colchester have maintained their status each year so would be expected to do so again. All it leaves is sides like us so to a neutral it makes sense.

That said, I think the season we won the league we weren't particularly fancied to finish in the playoffs and even last season when we sat in 11th we were still one of the favorites to go down so what do they know?!

[sotongill]

It's a myth that the bookies lose out if a team at long odds comes in , as the high returns that they pay out to a few customers is generally offset by the money they've taken in from people who've backed the favourites , and should a team win the first half a dozen games then the odds will be drastically cut .

It's generally the case that the coupons currently in your local betting shop will be replaced in a couple of weeks by a new coupon which will reflect money already staked - don't expect a massive change in the odds , as they rarely get things that far wrong , but if for example , Messi decided to join us to redeem himself after his poor showing in the World Cup , and a lot of people therefore decided to have a punt on us , then the odds would change very rapidly .

As I said in the previous post , bookies expect to make a certain percentage profit , and will have already calculated how much they expect to be placed on each team and will have set the initial odds so that their profit target range is met .

I trained as a betting shop manager with Stanley Racing ( big up north ) more years ago than I care to remember ( didn't stay in the job , as the salary was surprisingly poor once qualified ) , and the training manager at their head office in Liverpool also had responsibility for setting the odds for the Saturday coupon . One Monday , he wasn't there to train for most of the day as he was being dragged over the coals by the Board as they had unexpectedly made a loss the previous Saturday . Give someone enough kickings like that , and they rarely screw up thereafter .