Burton automatic promotion or last minute failures?

[Garawa]

Everyone believes Burton going up automatically is a full gone conclusion but I'm not so sure. Not many wanted a Millwall win on Monday but I was happy for one and pleased about their 2-0 win. Why? Let me explain!

The gap is still 9 points with just 6 games to go but the Gills now have a game in hand. Win that game (home to Walsall) and the gap is 6. We play Burton so win that game and the gap is just 3 and Albion still have to play to of the most inform sides in Wigan and Barnsley. OK this hinges on 2 big wins but we do tend to win the biggest games and lose the "easy" ones don't we. 5 of our last 8 are at home and if we don't win them then the whole thing is bust and too if Burton win their games.

Wigan will almost certainly go up automatically, a couple of sides are finishing strongly so if Burton do slip up, we need to be one of the sides ready to capitalise on second place.

[gillsfan1066]

They sure have not set the world alight winning big time in the last couple of months, there scratching and crawling there way to automatic, but there ten points clear of the Gills, I think it's going to be tough to catch them, when you look at our finishing games. What do you see from these next 8 games, REALISTICALLY ??
We really do have the worst last two games imaginable playing back to back against, Burton and Millwall, gee who organised that ??.lol.
I think it's very difficult to predict, we could end up with 24 points and auto , but I honestly think we drop points against Sheffield and Walsall, pick up a draws against Rochdale and Burton, pick up three against Coventry, Vale and the Shrews, (although this weeks game against Coventry will show us if were contenders or pretenders) , which will lead us with the match of the season, no decade, no century, against Millwall , a game we will have to win to play them again the following week in the playoffs.

[Garawa]

OK, this is what can see happening. It puts the Gills second. I'd love to read on how everyone else thinks the season will pan out.

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[lidbid46]

Wow! Not sure my heart can cope with all this! i like your predictions Gary but this is Gillingham we are dealing with and we can never assume anything when it comes to our games! The signs for us are looking good though with an unbeaten run going on and our injured players returning. I really think a lot depends on how quickly they get back into the swing of things and start performing like they were a few weeks ago. Is Dack's yellow card problem still an issue when he returns?

[gillsfan1066]

You end up giving the Gills 19 points between now and the end of the season, I see them getting 10 or maybe 12, I sure hope you are right and I am wrong.
This weekends game against Coventry will be the litmus test, (what ever the hell that is) , we really haven't set the world on fire in March, two wins, two draws and a loss against the tomato cans of the division , not exactly filling me with confidence going up against a desperate Coventry side that can not afford to loose.

[Rimshot]

It's the play-offs for us, get ready for Gills V the 'Wall !

[Garawa]

That scares me to death! I don't think we'd get through.

My predictions do have 2 assumptions Chicago, that we beat Walsall and Burton. Those 6 points will be incredibly difficult but I have included them purely to show to those that said a Burton win over Millwall was needed that automatic wasn't out of our grasp if we won those games.

[baronnight]

I've just been looking at our stats against top 3rd, middle 3rd, bottom 3rd teams.

top 3rd overall, position 3rd, games 11. wins 6. draws 2. losses 3. points per game 1.82.
top 3rd home, position 2nd, games 6. wins 4, draws 1. losses 1. points per game 2.17.

middle 3rd overall, position 2nd, games 12. wins 7. draws 4. losses 1. points per game 2.08.
middle 3rd home, position 1st, games 5. wins 4. draws 1. losses 0. points per game 2.60.


bottom 3rd overall, position 15th, games 15. wins 7. draws 3. losses 5. points per game 1.60.
bottom 3rd home, position 2nd, games 7. wins 5. draws 1. losses 1. points per game 2.29.

The position stat is where we would be in a table based on results just from the specified games.
it seems our worst games are playing away against teams in the bottom 3rd.

makes it almost impossible to guess what our results are going to be.

[gillsfan1066]

That's what makes it so much fun, trying to guess what the Mighty Big Blue Machine is going to do next, lol.
Burton and Wigan I think pick up three points each this week, Walsall playing a sad depressed Sheffield team who now know they are DOOMED, DOOMED I SAY, to remain in the who gives two hoots division, Millwall at home to Colchester, think we can give them 3 points, and Bradford have a Scunny team that has not lost for 7 games and thumped Swindon last time out, arriving at their front gate, who knows whats going to happen there, so that just leaves the MIGHTY , MIGHTY, GILLS out of the top 7 playing this week,and another MUST WIN GAME HERE or we could find our selves in last place in the playoff table. GO GILLS.

[Garawa]

Impossible to guess? Impossible to correctly predict all the outcomes yes but not impossible to guess what might happen (if I remember I might update the table with colours to see how it is going). Yes results go wrong but they will for other teams as well. The point here is that those people that said we had no chance of automatic could be quite wrong indeed! Points against top or bottom are irrelevant at this stage of the season as the most likely wins will be against mid-table sides with nothing to play for or sides with a decent safety net at the top! Games will be very close whoever they are against and a player like Dack could be the edge that gives us that win we didn't think likely. I don't see why we as fans should think all the sides around us will take the points instead of us!

[gillsfan1066]

Because we support Gillingham Football Club, were trained from a very young age to expect the worse, in fact it's in our DNA, built into our very soul, miss promotion this year and it's 100% certain we will be relegated next year, thats the God given law for GFC, lol.

[Garawa]

Despite the Gills dropping 2 points on my predictions against Coventry, so too did Burton so it doesn't change much of the final results only the points really (although this WILL change over the remaining games). Bradford are my big winners gaining 2 points helping to knock Millwall out of the playoffs come May. This is the update after today's games.

[gillsfan1066]

Well done old darling, now you have me totally confused, if we drew 0-0 and Millwall drew 0-0 how come we get -2 and they get nothing, zero ,f all, nutting. So you expected Colchester to draw with them, a bottom feeder, ( I want you to do my pools coupon next week ) but you expected Gillingham to win so it's -2 , wow I AM impressed.
Well done Mr. Pythagoras (and so you should be),

[Garawa]

This isn't a running total of the current league, there are a billion websites where you can see that. I was annoyed that virtually all our fans said automatic was beyond us but I felt that basic results could still give us a good realistic chance of it. The points difference were on what I predicted so I thought we would beat Coventry for 3 points but we drew hence -2 (points dropped) and Bradford have an extra 2 (spreadsheet removes the + sign) points gained from their win after I predicted a draw. I will do it after each round of games purely to see if I feel we are still on track for automatic promotion.

A red match will be an incorrect prediction and a green a correct one hence the 0 showing now alteration of points.

[Garawa]

After Gills result today (draw at Sheff Utd) I now have the Gills a point better off and still in 2nd if all results go the way I think (they won't, but there are better than they were 2 games further away from the end)! 3 results right, 4 wrong but one of those was the Gills that gave us a point instead of losing like I thought we would. My theory behind this hinges on winning 2 key games, the next on Tuesday against Walsall. Here is the updated table:

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