by Garawa » Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:48 pm
That's not strictly true and I believe Carlisle is the problem Rob. Listening to the "experts" pondering every equation, the fact they have played 43 games means they can reach 53 points. The only 2 clashes between the bottom sides are Oldham v Carlisle and Oldham v Notts County. If Oldham lose both those games but win their other match, they would reach 54 and Notts County could join the Gills on 52 and would escape on goal difference.
Of course all these require EVERY side to win all their remaining games including Carlisle at Wolves and Tranmere at Leyton Orient. It is highly unlikely, almost impossible (remember Wycombe in 2010 anyone) so we are safe but not mathematically safe. Just to muddy the waters further, with a better goal difference of around 10, losing 2 games by 3 goals and if the other sides won by 2, that could put us down on goal difference so we would still need 2 points if what I have written below happened!!!
GILLINGHAM: Preston (Lose), Shrewsbury (Lose)
OLDHAM: Carlisle (Lose), Sheffield Utd (Win), Notts County (Lose)
COVENTRY: Wolves (Win), Sheffield Utd (Win)
COLCHESTER: Brentford (Win), Walsall (Win)
TRANMERE: Leyton Orient (Win), Bradford (Win)
CREWE: Cristol City (Win), Preston (Win)
NOTTS COUNTY: Swindon (Win), Oldham (Win)
CARLISLE: Oldham (Win), Crawley (Win), Wolves (Win)
SHREWSBURY: Peterboro (Win), Gillingham (Win)
If every result goes against us, the table would end up like this (give or take a place for goal difference but the Gills one WOULD be worse):
Coventry - 56
Oldham - 54
Colchester - 53
Tranmere - 53
Crewe - 53
Carlisle - 53
----------------------
Notts County - 52
Gillingham - 52
Shrewsbury - 47
Stevenage - 45
Does anyone know a bookie. I would dearly love to know the odds of these coming true!!!!
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